Arithmetic · real student question

Express the probability 0.0000000121 in scientific notation, as a percentage, and as odds of one in N.

Question

A probability is given as 0.00000001210.0000000121. Write it in scientific notation, as a percentage, and in the form "1 chance in NN".

Step-by-step solution

  1. Move the decimal point to make a mantissa between 1 and 10. Starting from 0.00000001210.0000000121, sliding the point right past the eight leading zeros lands on 1.211.21. Each rightward step divides by 1010, so eight steps must be compensated by 10810^{-8}:

    0.0000000121=1.21×1080.0000000121=1.21\times 10^{-8}

    The requirement 1mantissa<101\le |{\rm mantissa}|<10 is what fixes the exponent uniquely — 12.1×10912.1\times 10^{-9} is the same number but not in standard form.

  2. Check the conversion by expanding.

    1.21×108=1.21100,000,000=0.00000001211.21\times 10^{-8}=\frac{1.21}{100{,}000{,}000}=0.0000000121

    Counting the zeros confirms eight decimal places before the 121121.

  3. Convert to a percentage. A percentage is the number multiplied by 100%100\%, which shifts the point two places right (or raises the exponent by 22):

    1.21×108×100%=1.21×106%=0.00000121%1.21\times 10^{-8}\times 100\%=1.21\times 10^{-6}\%=0.00000121\%

    The percent sign is not decoration here: writing 1.21×108%1.21\times 10^{-8}\% would be a hundredfold error.

  4. Express it as odds. "One chance in NN" means N=1/pN=1/p:

    N=11.21×108=82,644,628N=\frac{1}{1.21\times 10^{-8}}=82{,}644{,}628

    so the event is about 1 in 82.6 million — a far more intuitive statement of the same figure.

  5. Note the significant figures. Only the digits 11, 22, 11 carry information; the eight leading zeros are placeholders. So the value has three significant figures, and rounding it to 1.2×1081.2\times 10^{-8} (about 1 in 83 million) is the two-figure version.

Answer

0.0000000121=1.21×108=0.00000121%182,644,6280.0000000121=1.21\times 10^{-8}=0.00000121\%\approx \tfrac{1}{82{,}644{,}628}

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