Statistics · real student question

A bag contains 3 red balls and 5 white balls. Two balls are drawn at random at the same time. What is the probability that both are red?

Question

A bag contains 33 red balls and 55 white balls. Two balls are drawn at random without replacement. Find the probability that both balls are red.

Step-by-step solution

  1. Decide whether order matters. The two balls are drawn together, so a draw is an unordered pair of balls. Counting unordered pairs with combinations keeps the numerator and denominator consistent; you would get the same answer counting ordered pairs, as long as you do it on both sides of the fraction.

  2. Count all equally likely outcomes. The bag holds 3+5=83+5=8 balls, and every pair of distinct balls is equally likely, so the sample space has

    (82)=872=28\binom{8}{2}=\frac{8\cdot 7}{2}=28

    elements.

  3. Count the favourable outcomes. Both balls red means choosing 22 of the 33 red balls:

    (32)=3\binom{3}{2}=3

    The white balls play no role beyond inflating the denominator.

  4. Divide to get the probability.

    P(both red)=(32)(82)=3280.107P(\text{both red})=\frac{\binom{3}{2}}{\binom{8}{2}}=\frac{3}{28}\approx 0.107

    328\boxed{\dfrac{3}{28}}

  5. Confirm with the sequential (multiplication rule) method. Draw one ball at a time. The first is red with probability 38\tfrac{3}{8}; given that, only 22 red balls remain among 77, so the second is red with probability 27\tfrac{2}{7}:

    3827=656=328\frac{3}{8}\cdot\frac{2}{7}=\frac{6}{56}=\frac{3}{28}

    The agreement is a good check that the drawing was treated as being without replacement. With replacement the answer would instead be (38)2=964\left(\tfrac{3}{8}\right)^2=\tfrac{9}{64}, noticeably larger.

Answer

3280.107\dfrac{3}{28}\approx 0.107

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