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Statistics · real student question

A 60-card deck contains 5 cards marked A and 23 different cards marked B. Five cards are drawn at random without replacement. What is the probability that the five cards include at least one A and at least one B?

Question

A deck contains 6060 cards. Exactly 55 of them are marked A, and 2323 different cards are marked B (no card carries both marks). Five cards are drawn at random without replacement.

Find the probability that the five drawn cards include at least one A and at least one B.

Step-by-step solution

  1. Count the three disjoint groups of cards. The marks do not overlap, so the deck splits into

    5 marked A,23 marked B,60−5−23=32 unmarked5\ \text{marked A},\qquad 23\ \text{marked B},\qquad 60-5-23=32\ \text{unmarked}

    Every later count is a choice of 55 cards from one of these sub-piles, and the total number of equally likely hands is

    (605)=5,461,512\binom{60}{5}=5{,}461{,}512

  2. Switch to complements — “at least one … and at least one …” is painful head-on. Counting hands with 11 A, 22 A's, 33 A's … while simultaneously tracking B's means a double sum. Instead let

    A={at least one A},B={at least one B}A=\{\text{at least one A}\},\qquad B=\{\text{at least one B}\}

    and apply inclusion–exclusion to the complement:

    P(A∩B)=1−P(Ac∪Bc)=1−P(Ac)−P(Bc)+P(Ac∩Bc)P(A\cap B)=1-P(A^c\cup B^c)=1-P(A^c)-P(B^c)+P(A^c\cap B^c)

    The three complementary events each describe hands drawn from a single restricted pile, so each is one binomial coefficient. The +P(Ac∩Bc)+P(A^c\cap B^c) term is essential: hands with neither mark were subtracted twice and must be added back once.

  3. Count hands with no A. These come from the 60−5=5560-5=55 non-A cards:

    P(Ac)=(555)(605)=3,478,7615,461,512=0.63696P(A^c)=\frac{\binom{55}{5}}{\binom{60}{5}}=\frac{3{,}478{,}761}{5{,}461{,}512}=0.63696

  4. Count hands with no B. These come from the 60−23=3760-23=37 non-B cards:

    P(Bc)=(375)(605)=435,8975,461,512=0.07981P(B^c)=\frac{\binom{37}{5}}{\binom{60}{5}}=\frac{435{,}897}{5{,}461{,}512}=0.07981

    That this probability is small is the expected sanity check: with 2323 of 6060 cards marked B, missing all of them in five draws should be unlikely.

  5. Count hands with neither mark. These are drawn from the 3232 unmarked cards only:

    P(Ac∩Bc)=(325)(605)=201,3765,461,512=0.03687P(A^c\cap B^c)=\frac{\binom{32}{5}}{\binom{60}{5}}=\frac{201{,}376}{5{,}461{,}512}=0.03687

  6. Combine. Putting the four counts over the common denominator (605)\binom{60}{5}:

    P(A∩B)=5,461,512−3,478,761−435,897+201,3765,461,512=1,748,2305,461,512P(A\cap B)=\frac{5{,}461{,}512-3{,}478{,}761-435{,}897+201{,}376}{5{,}461{,}512}=\frac{1{,}748{,}230}{5{,}461{,}512}

    P(A∩B)=0.32010≈32.0%P(A\cap B)=0.32010\approx32.0\%

  7. Check the result against a rough expectation. The chance of catching at least one A alone is 1−0.63696=0.363041-0.63696=0.36304, and the chance of at least one B alone is 1−0.07981=0.920191-0.07981=0.92019. If the two events were independent the product would be 0.36304×0.92019=0.334060.36304\times0.92019=0.33406; the true answer 0.320100.32010 is slightly lower, which is exactly right — the events are mildly negatively correlated, because slots in the five-card hand used by an A are slots that cannot hold a B.

Answer

P=(605)−(555)−(375)+(325)(605)=17482305461512≈0.3201=32.0%P=\frac{\binom{60}{5}-\binom{55}{5}-\binom{37}{5}+\binom{32}{5}}{\binom{60}{5}}=\frac{1748230}{5461512}\approx0.3201=32.0\%

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