Statistics · real student question

What is the probability of rolling a 6 on a fair six-sided die?

Question

What is the probability of rolling a 66 on a fair six-sided die?

Step-by-step solution

  1. List the sample space. A single roll of a six-sided die has outcomes

    S={1,2,3,4,5,6},S=6S=\{1,2,3,4,5,6\},\qquad |S|=6

    The word fair is what licenses the next step: it means all six outcomes are equally likely, each with probability 16\tfrac16.

  2. Identify the favourable outcomes. The event "roll a 66" contains exactly one outcome:

    E={6},E=1E=\{6\},\qquad |E|=1

  3. Apply the equally-likely-outcomes formula.

    P(E)=number of favourable outcomestotal number of outcomes=16P(E)=\frac{\text{number of favourable outcomes}}{\text{total number of outcomes}}=\frac{1}{6}

  4. Express the answer in decimal and percent form.

    16=0.160.166716.67%\frac16=0.1\overline{6}\approx 0.1667\approx 16.67\%

  5. Check the probabilities sum to 1, and note what the answer does not mean. Each of the six faces has probability 16\tfrac16, and 6×16=1  6\times\tfrac16=1\;\checkmark. The value 16\tfrac16 is a long-run frequency, not a guarantee: rolling six times gives at least one 66 with probability 1(56)60.6651-\left(\tfrac56\right)^6\approx 0.665, not 11.

Answer

P(roll a 6)=160.166716.67%P(\text{roll a }6)=\frac{1}{6}\approx 0.1667\approx 16.67\%

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